Comments on: TV's Fuzzy Future: Left to Their Own Devices, Viewers Are Cutting the Cord – washingtonpost.com http://www.davidandrewjohnson.com/2009/05/tvs-fuzzy-future-left-to-their-own-devices-viewers-are-cutting-the-cord-washingtonpostcom/ David Andrew Johnson Sat, 10 Dec 2011 02:19:24 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2-RC3 By: Benz http://www.davidandrewjohnson.com/2009/05/tvs-fuzzy-future-left-to-their-own-devices-viewers-are-cutting-the-cord-washingtonpostcom/comment-page-1/#comment-32 Benz Mon, 18 May 2009 12:06:00 +0000 http://www.davidandrewjohnson.com/?p=785#comment-32 I think AppleTV fizzled because Apple hamstrung it with a DRM/proprietary focus that made it almost impossible for me to send things straight from the internet to AppleTV to watch. Then came Boxee. Once I put that on my AppleTV (which Apple made as difficult as possible to install) I shut off my cable connection. That's why Hulu got so twitchy about Boxee. The big guys see the disruption in the current model that this represents. On Webisode retention rate, how does that compare to new shows on network TV? I'm betting, given the high kill rate of new shows each season, the drop-off rate also is precipitous for most shows. And that's with the considerable branding/promotional power the networks throw at it. But my webisode vs. network TV probably is a specious comparison anyway. The former is a long-tail type of medium, where most programming isn't going to be your cup of tea; the latter is a mass medium where every show is designed to reach the largest possible audience. So I'd expect to see high drop-off rates on webisodes as people fish around for the niche that suits them. Given this, I think we're going to see a burning need for a way to sort through all the crap and find stuff that really will interest us. That's where social networks and reviewers who can point you to the gems will be critical. Think TIVO's recommendation engine on crystal meth. I think Comcast, NBC and Co. need to be worried about what's coming. I have no desire to get 300 channels of crap I'm not interested in. And I'm not terribly interested in VOD as the cable companies currently try to impose it. I want to watch what I want, when I want, where I want ... for a reasonable price. Maybe all the noise about micropayments in the newspaper industry is more applicable to broadcast in the long run ... I think AppleTV fizzled because Apple hamstrung it with a DRM/proprietary focus that made it almost impossible for me to send things straight from the internet to AppleTV to watch. Then came Boxee. Once I put that on my AppleTV (which Apple made as difficult as possible to install) I shut off my cable connection. That’s why Hulu got so twitchy about Boxee. The big guys see the disruption in the current model that this represents.

On Webisode retention rate, how does that compare to new shows on network TV? I’m betting, given the high kill rate of new shows each season, the drop-off rate also is precipitous for most shows. And that’s with the considerable branding/promotional power the networks throw at it. But my webisode vs. network TV probably is a specious comparison anyway. The former is a long-tail type of medium, where most programming isn’t going to be your cup of tea; the latter is a mass medium where every show is designed to reach the largest possible audience. So I’d expect to see high drop-off rates on webisodes as people fish around for the niche that suits them.

Given this, I think we’re going to see a burning need for a way to sort through all the crap and find stuff that really will interest us. That’s where social networks and reviewers who can point you to the gems will be critical. Think TIVO’s recommendation engine on crystal meth.

I think Comcast, NBC and Co. need to be worried about what’s coming. I have no desire to get 300 channels of crap I’m not interested in. And I’m not terribly interested in VOD as the cable companies currently try to impose it. I want to watch what I want, when I want, where I want … for a reasonable price. Maybe all the noise about micropayments in the newspaper industry is more applicable to broadcast in the long run …

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